Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 78092.455409 82462.063573 86829.826818 91520.154179 96411.082132 101357.580184 106735.159573
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 70860.971406 77533.013558 84387.794095 91946.673826 100037.945797 108429.221241 117779.251782
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 65423.653936 73638.914548 82264.472947 91975.383624 102582.757713 113796.523073 126526.346812
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 62035.803103 71489.002536 81594.257053 93166.110444 106015.609416 119811.015087 135705.911211
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 58300.829899 68623.077119 79836.300024 92872.312391 107558.759511 123540.716761 142194.128190
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 56231.303443 67427.117653 79761.302732 94289.380161 110862.031129 129106.009653 150634.393412
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 54116.431292 66022.679310 79311.566106 95154.162262 113433.871285 133769.859452 158006.607212
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 51761.448193 64202.412985 78261.642984 95215.326889 114988.606951 137204.077187 163927.395813
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 49518.894143 62397.418481 77124.006645 95075.418970 116225.218501 140207.380888 169306.037724
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 48507.122168 61986.793857 77563.163444 96732.465892 119518.711255 145565.678038 177408.181678
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 47567.977314 61605.321376 77988.394747 98333.188772 122719.831058 150807.746337 185387.298770
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 46164.491852 60594.621107 77604.507627 98918.099462 124678.516409 154570.810660 191626.695513
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 44441.739475 59154.410594 76677.647133 98839.289787 125854.234560 157443.065528 196879.409489
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 43072.284091 58104.585168 76186.308889 99257.089987 127608.421455 161000.013956 202964.418215
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 41594.043016 56862.438343 75408.933376 99279.815403 128848.208784 163920.127929 208282.437795
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 40809.770439 56466.654053 75653.967809 100543.821774 131594.339202 168657.113896 215808.267795
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 39330.409068 55126.840357 74668.941110 100231.169322 132361.662777 170969.703901 220385.363912
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 38772.908693 54956.942836 75142.770456 101737.182975 135381.848248 176040.107318 228349.540036
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 37985.148299 54455.289882 75168.574074 102656.142422 137657.429210 180197.108776 235210.551738
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 36863.841689 53475.883655 74547.715920 102721.132441 138836.693532 182988.573874 240389.867020
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 35706.778507 52412.195471 73784.431290 102572.463746 139720.975588 185398.709773 245093.435914
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 35408.640046 52490.622884 74501.284532 104333.093704 143040.517717 190863.078035 253629.701850
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 35102.439018 52543.652966 75174.942198 106033.535175 146287.841467 196252.831242 262104.679954